UK GDP in April will be dominated by the reopening in April of those parts of the economy that have been closed since January (hospitality, non-essential retail, leisure).
High frequency data suggests that activity increased rapidly in response. Retail sales rose 9.2% m / m in April. Card Spending Data (CHAPS), which capture broader spending categories, showed that aggregate credit and debit card purchases had increased to February 2020 levels by the end of the month, from an average of 80% of that level in March, mainly due to “lagging” “(E.g. clothing and shoes, vehicles, housewares, etc.) and, albeit to a much lesser extent, through” social spending “(e.g. in restaurants and hotels).
The reopening of schools in March contributed 0.5 percentage points to monthly GDP, in addition there was an above-average contribution from the construction industry with 0.4 percentage points.
For April, the reopening of the retail and hospitality sector will dominate and as a result we expect monthly GDP growth to accelerate to 2.6% m / m.