The Consumer Economy Is About to Come Down from Its Sugar High | FTI Consulting

Regardless of your views as to the need, adequacy, or effectiveness of the federal response to the pandemic, the relevant consideration of the moment is that government support for most Americans will soon end.

Large retailers reported largely sprawling sales and profits in Q1 21, and commentators praised these results and the resilience of consumer spending when a recovery scenario unfolds. Some of those headlines are: “Target Stores ‘Stars of the Show’ in the Blowout Quarter”, “Walmart Exceeds First Quarter Expectations”, “Amazon Exceeds Earnings Expectations with 44% Sales Increase” and “Home Depot in Blockbuster 1Q”. You have the idea. The U.S. retail sector (excluding Amazon) has far outperformed the broader stock market so far in 2021.

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