New infectious disease model from Johns Hopkins projects COVID-19 resurgence in 3 months

More than half of the US population has at least one dose of the Coronavirus Vaccine. But based on a new scenario model from Johns Hopkins, the next three months are crucial if we are to avoid a resurgence by fall.

As of today, 45 percent of the US population is fully vaccinated, but Johns Hopkins researchers see these numbers as the perfect gap for a COVID-19 resurgence.

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“The rest of the population still has some chance of infection and mortality,” said Dr. Shaun Truelove, Assistant Scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The Covid-19 scenario modeling center has come up with four scenarios of what could happen in the coming months if vaccination rates don’t go up.

“We have a high vaccination scenario and a low vaccination scenario. If the high vaccination assumes that approximately 86% of the eligible population will be vaccinated, the low vaccination scenario has dropped to 75%. Both values ​​are higher than where we are right so we still need some progress to get there, “said Dr. Truelove.

Light as a feather: “We see a decline in your data in the summer. Why do you think there might be a resurgence in the fall?”

Dr. Truelove: “This is a virus that has seasonality, and with seasonality and changing climates, we see that there is a higher potential for transmission with fall.”

A key factor for a possible resurgence is the delta variant. This is the mutation of the virus that is responsible for the increase in COVID-19 cases in India. This variant is widespread in the USA.

Light as a feather: “Do you think the Delta variant could become the predominant variant by autumn?”

DR. Nevan Krogan: “I think the fewer vaccinations there are now with different bags in this country, the more likely it will be. The Delta variant will be the most widespread virus.”

Scientists at UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute are closely examining this emerging variant.

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“For now, it looks like it’s also modulating our immune response,” said Dr. Krogan, director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute at UCSF.

At Johns Hopkins, their modeling shows an increase in communicability if people are not vaccinated quickly.

“The more pessimistic scenario is that a new variant is about 60% more transferable than what we are currently experiencing. This is really based very much on what is currently being seen in the UK with the Delta variant, ”said Dr. Truelove.

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