Bitcoin drops below $36K as century-old financial model predicts big BTC crash

Overconfident Bitcoin (BTCBulls would have to fight more than just Elon Musk, as a price prediction model – developed more than 100 years ago by technical analyst pioneer Richard Wyckoff – also contradicts their wild upside forecasts.

The model known as the Wyckoff method involves a five-phase approach to determine price trends, which primarily involve the psychological response of investors to the supply and demand of an asset.

In the case of accumulation, for example, when an asset tends to bottom out after strong price movements, the five phases of the order include Selling Climax (SC), Successful Secondary Test (ST), Last Point of Support (LPS), Token of strength (SOS) and “springboards” – that means more demand for the asset.

Wyckoff events and phases during accumulation. Source: Stockcharts.com

On the other hand, the distribution case appears like a 180 degree version of the accumulation case, consisting of five phases that follow a strong upward price trend.

Wyckoff events and phases during distribution. Source: Stockcharts.com

The preliminary supply (PSY) signals a strong upward shift in demand, as the price trend rises with simultaneously increasing quantities. However, the upward trend is ultimately exhausted, which even leads to what is known as a buying climate (BC). What follows is a sell-off caused by a lack of demand near the asset’s price stop against an abundant supply. Wyckoff called the correction automatic response (AR).

Together, PSY, BC and AR form phase A.

Meanwhile, Phase B involves a fake rebound towards BC called the Secondary Test (SET), followed by another drop that shows the asset’s sign of weakness (SOW). Phase B also typically sees weak attempts to rebound from SOW towards upthrust (UT). Later, when transitioning to Phase C, there is a final cleanup of the distribution known as Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD).

Phase D involves an alarming drop in demand versus supply, also known as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY), which in Phase E leads to a total drop in prices.

Bitcoin in ‘Phase C’

Tempting Beef, an Independent Market Analyst, alarmed his followers that Bitcoin has entered the accumulation cycle of the classic Wyckoff model. The pseudonymous company has flashed recent rallies in the Bitcoin market, which is worrying about the potential of BTC / USD, maintain a bullish trend above $ 40,000 to a weakening supply and an increasing demand.

“The offer is exhausted. [It] could be ready for phase C. “

But Tempting Beef presented a contradicting scenario by reinterpreting the Phase A schemes per Wyckoff Distribution. The analyst marked Bitcoin’s rebound from a low of $ 30,000 as a sign of PSY, leading to BC, AR, ST, SOW, and other consecutive events mentioned in the distribution phases.

Contradicting Wyckoff scenarios appear in Tempting Beef’s Bitcoin market outlook. Source: Twitter

Bitcoin landed again in phase C, which, in the case of Wyckoff Distribution Events, alerted about demand exhaustion. This would mean that the cryptocurrency’s slightest risk is to the downside – a price crash.

Technique distorted downwards

Bitcoin’s recent correction in the spot market came to light after a year-long rally. Between March 2020 and April 2021, the BTC / USD exchange rate rose as much as 1.582%, reaching an all-time high of $ 65,000.

However, the pair wiped away more than 50% of its price rally. Prices plummeted, rebounded, and are now consolidating sideways without indicating any specific short-term directional orientation. Hence, it now appears more like a Wyckoff distribution model, as the phases follow a year-long upward movement rather than a downward movement.

Meanwhile, after its sharp downward correction after mid-May, Bitcoin has consolidated in a symmetrical triangle structure, suggesting that the pattern – in fact – a. is bearish pennant. Technically, bearish pennants lower prices as much as the extent of the previous downward move.

Bitcoin pennant setup crashes BTC below $ 20,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

BTC / USD is trading at around $ 36,000 as of this writing, or 44.59% below its high of $ 65,000.